What are the odds of winning PCSO Ultra Lotto 6/58?

There are C(58,6) = 40,475,358 possible combinations, so a single ticket wins the jackpot with probability 1 in 40,475,358.

Is the lottery a good bet?

No. For typical PCSO jackpots the expected value of a ticket is sharply negative. You are far more likely to be struck by lightning or die in a road crash than to win.

Lottery odds at scale

Your odds collapse to a single pixel.

Pick a PCSO lotto. On a log axis everything looks survivable. Flip to the true linear scale — and watch the jackpot bar vanish next to lightning and the morning commute.

Probability — logarithmic axis Ultra Lotto 6/58

Bars drawn at true proportion. On the linear axis the lottery is too small to see — that is its honest size.

Axis scale

Pick your PCSO lotto

Jackpot odds

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— combinations

EV · ₱20 ticket

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at ₱50M jackpot

How to use

Pick a lotto (6/42 to 6/58). Switch the axis: Log compresses everything so the bars are comparable; Linear shows the true proportion and the jackpot bar disappears; vs your lotto scales every risk against the lotto you picked.

How the odds compute

For a "pick 6 from N" draw, the number of possible tickets is C(N, 6) = N! / (6! × (N−6)!) — computed here with exact BigInt arithmetic.

Lotto 6/42 — C(42,6) = 5,245,786
Mega Lotto 6/45 — C(45,6) = 8,145,060
Super Lotto 6/49 — C(49,6) = 13,983,816
Grand Lotto 6/55 — C(55,6) = 28,989,675
Ultra Lotto 6/58 — C(58,6) = 40,475,358

One ticket is one winning combination out of those — about 40 million to 1 against you for Ultra Lotto.

Why the scale fools you

Your brain files 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 1,000,000 as the same blurry "small" — but they differ by 1000×. Both feel "maybe possible."

That is why a vivid ₱100M jackpot sells and "1 in 40 million" does not. Flip to Linear and the lottery bar shrinks to a pixel — that is its real proportion next to "struck by lightning."

Expected value of a ticket

EV = P(win) × jackpot − ticket cost.

Ultra Lotto, ₱20 ticket, ₱50M jackpot: EV = (1/40,475,358) × ₱50,000,000 − ₱20 = ₱1.24 − ₱20 = − ₱18.76 per ticket on average.

Even a record ₱1B jackpot gives EV = ₱24.71 − ₱20 = + ₱4.71 — positive! But split across the ~7 typical co-winners at billion-peso draws, EV turns negative again. The fun is the dream, not the math.

Citations

PCSO official combinatorics. PH lightning strike rate: WHO Global Health Estimates. PH road fatality rate: WHO 2023 road safety report (~12,000 deaths/year). Vending machine deaths: actuarial estimates. Asteroid impact lifetime risk: NEO Surveyor program. All annual rates converted to "today" or "ticket-equivalent" probabilities.

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