← Mirastate Math
Bayesian updating

Drag a belief. Flip a coin. Watch it move.

You're estimating the hidden bias θ of a coin. Shape your prior by dragging the curve below, then add evidence — one flip or a hundred — and watch the posterior slide onto the truth.

Prior mean
0.50
Beta(2.5, 2.5)
Evidence
0/0
heads / flips
Posterior mean
0.50
Beta(2.5, 2.5)
Density over coin bias θ ∈ [0,1]
Prior Likelihood Posterior
Drag the chart left/right to move the prior mean. Then flip some coins.